As if the Palm Pre had any shot of making a difference, Palm is done. Sure, the Palm Pre looks like a nice phone and sure there are some nice features but just like many Mp3 makers way back in 2001 – some with nice features but none with THE IPOD.

And none are the IPHONE.

Sure, some of it is Apple’s marketing prowess, but the bottom line is that Apple iPhone now firmly #1 in MINDSHARE for consumers and developers.

I’m not saying the iPhone is perfect nor that there are no other phones with features that can duplicate many if not most of the features and functions of the iPhone itself but if people bought on just features, we’d all be using Linux.

Much like the iPod, it’s combination of: world class features; world class ease of use; iconic design; distribution; online store, the ecosystem (accessories) and of course, the Apple name cannot be beat.

Combined, the iPod simply stands for THE Mp3-Digital Audio & Video player.

Anything else that you buy means you either loathe Apple or YOU must explain YOURSELF to others. “Why did you buy X again?” It’s like drinking water in a bar or wearing a business suit on the beach, you have free choice to do both but most people will require you to EXPLAIN YOURSELF.

You can come close to the iPod on a couple categories but not all of them.

Now, same with the iPhone built upon the success of the iPod.

Consumer Smartphone – THE IPHONE.

End of story.

Everything is a “compromise,” either in actuality or in theory but that’s not as important. Every other choice requires you to stammer and explain yourself. Sure, some people enjoy being contrians as if only they are smart enough to see through the “hype.” But the iPhone is clearly not hype unless you really, really can’t/won’t/refuse to believe and blame its success just on marketing.

Now, Apple will never achieve the same marketshare with the iPhone as it will with the iPod because of carrier linkups and there are stronger and bigger name competitors worldwide but then again, there’s much more money to be made.

RIM is a strong competitor with the enterprise market and people who can only type if the keys are raised and there’s certainly there’s money to be made there but remember, with RIM’s Blackberry operations, all messages must pass through their servers so every incremental increase in sales means a bigger capital investment. RIM has several phone models that compete directly with the iPhone but is there any logic to their branding – Is a Storm bigger or better than a Curve – and is there a Fastball and Slider model? Or the fact, it’s clear their phone requires HEAVY pressure to get it to do anything – I’ll give them credit for their honesty in thatthe phone requires a heavy press but that ad is hilarious, the guy practically grunts – why not just attach a wheelbarrow to the phone? Plus of course, a physical keypad with AMERICAN keys has to be modified for Europe with accent keys and other alphabets – unlike the iPhone – software lets you access 150 accented letters so again, for every market, RIM has to spend more investment and lose economies of scale. While they too are launching an app store – and other than borrowing elements from iTunes, is ANYONE convinced RIM can design a user interface that’s useful and user friendly? It’s taken them 9 years to get a decent Mp3 player on their phone and will corporations really allow employees to buy games and “fart” apps – or will they just wipe them at the next backup? RIM is the white cargo van of mobile – it serves its one function real well (email) but like a white cargo van, you can try and dress it up as a something more but at the end of the day, you are driving a white cargo van. Again, not saying white cargo vans like Blackberry’s are not great but they serve one purpose and it’s a separate market and will never really compete for consumers.

PALM – a sad story but one they brought upon themselves. They had 10 years to update their OS but choose not to. They mocked Apple 2 years ago for trying to come into their market and yea, the Palm Pre looks fine but let’s start with the most obvious – what the hell is a PRE? Pre-cursor to a better phone? Why not a deadly animal like the GATOR or something – what is a PRE? And sure, it has some nice features but is the name/word PRE really going to out-market the iPhone? Even if the iPhone did not come out with upgrade 3.0 (who did not see this one coming?) – millions of people will switch for two apps running and cut and paste? Um, yea, right. Some, sure … but how many are just upgrades from other Palm or Sprint users? How many are just gadget buyers who want something new to play with? Palm has about $200 million left in cash – which would be fine if that’s what’s left for marketing … but that $200 million is THE ENTIRE cash on hand so the PRE will get a weeks worth of ads on national TV and then forgotten. having Sprint as the only partner is not going to help. Unlike Apple’s foray into the iPhone, it’s an iPod with a phone is not a critical marketing leap. What does Palm have? Nothing anymore. They are a dusty relic … if they had a $200 million just for marketing, they might turn around the ship but as it is now, hardly any consumers care or even know the name Palm …

NOKIA is of course a strong brand name in the rest of the world but they too with billions in R&D and relationships with hundreds of cell providers were NOT able to design a touchscreen phone that played video or surfed the internet that more than a few thousand people wanted … it’s unlikely they will in the near future design a UI, AND come up with an app store that developers and consumers will care about. This is of course the company that designed a game playing phone that required you to remove the battery before taking the game cartridge out – in other words – clueless. Again, they are fine selling low cost low margin phones but beyond that – they have no UI or design sense. The problem is the company is so bureaucratic that whatever new pops up gets sanded down by the hundreds involved in the decision making process.

ANDROID PHONES – Not really sure why everyone think Google’s search prowess will transfer to a phone UI. It’s a FREE programming and development system – nothing wrong with that but EVERY companies UI will be DIFFERENT and NOT THE SAME. For consumer, it means nothing. An Android Moto phone will not be like a Samsung Android phone … AND most important of all, it makes Google NO DIRECT REVENUE. Google makes money from search and perhaps other services down the line but for now, it’s just to put a stake in the mobile phone market … the Android development program means NOTHING to the average consumer – much as Google Video failed in the face and head start of YouTube (why Google decided to buy YouTube). Like Symbian or Mobile java or now Android, the average consumer will not care – the only MobileOs that might’ve had any credence before the iPhone was WinCE or WinMobile but clearly by the time it rolled out, MS OSses had lost all credibility anyway. Will knowing it’s an Android phone help sell soem to tech geeks and to LinuxHeads, sure … but how many people really care they can re-program their own phone? And really, you honestly every phone carrier will let you load and use any app? What color is the sky in your world? It’s great that it’s available but as a threat to the iPhone … it’s as scary as a Linux Mp3 player to the iPod.

Unlike many people who think any smartphone is an “iPhone killer,” as if it were a new flavor of yogurt – the opposite is true. The iPhone will not really kill off wannabes – the competition in the smartphone category is too big and the market is huge so it’s all great – the more competition the merrier but the iPhone is the defacto consumer smartphone.

And it’s a bigger sting because it’s one thing to defeat MS, Rio, Creative and SanDisk for the Mp3 crown but it’s another to ultimately defeat Nokia, RIM, Moto, Sony, Samsung, Palm and yes Google. It won’t be a huge of a marketshare (not 70% like the iPod) but the stakes and profits are much bigger.

Basically – the other companies were all asleep at the switch. Consumers reject touchscreens because their touchscreens were poor and based on a poor UI. Suddenly, you expect them to wake up and “defeat” Apple at a UI game? Um, good luck. That’s not to say that Nokia, RIM, Moto, Sony, Samsung, & Palm won’t split up the remaining 45-55% of the consumer smartphone market but basically that’s what these 6+ companies will be doing.

None will have more than 20% of the market – or about 50% of the iPhone share when the dust settles in the next 18 months. This will definitely be true in the US but take a little longer throughout the world.

Every iTouch sale also increases the iPhone/iTouch base of already 30 MILLION. It is the market where the most interesting apps will be and the biggest ecosystem … just look at the Android store selection and the iTunes store selection … and the numbers, 800 million downloads, 27,000 apps … in less than a year for iTunes.

And you just to ask – is your phone a video iPod also? RENT movies? Buy movies? Music? Apps? read eBooks? Listen to audio books? All at a few clicks? Good luck competing with that.

It’s also telling that 66% of the mobile web browsing traffic is from ONE phone, the iPhone.

And as for the Palm investor who thinks that iPhone users will switch to Sprint AND the Palm in June? One thing that most analysts (and the clueless) forget is that EVERY iPhone is an iTouch. Turn on AIRPLANE MODE and turn on WIFI and you have a WiFi iTouch capable of buying more apps and even making calls using Skype/TruPhone or another VOIP so even if you upgrade, your old iPhone is not a USELESS cell phone – it is $199 iTouch! So, when you are done with it as a phone, you have a video iPod that plays games and access to apps … Good luck competing with that.

As for Nintendo … they finally get some headway in getting people to buy a Gameboy DS to play on a commute and now comes an iPhone that has storage, can make calls, can play movies and Tv shows and doesn’t look plasticky … AND while there are games you will always have only on Nintendo thanks to Mario, Donkey Kong & Zelda … there are no cartridges to load on the iPhone -it’s self contained – you can even buy games and apps via WiFi. Again, DS sales will not tank but it will stop expanding into the mass market. The iPhone is to the DS as the Wii is to the XBox or PS3 … the MASS MARKET easy to play gaming console and system …

And we can also put to rest a “low cost” iPhone for $99 – if you want an iPhone, $199 is not a deal breaker, anyone willing to pay $99 for a phone can afford $199 … the differences is that the monthly AT&T charge doesn’t change – that’s the real key. $199 is cheap – $80-$100 a month is the deal breaker for many but hey, what are you gonna do? You can’t sell to everyone so you might as well sell to a higher margin audience.